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Salal Investment Services Newsletter, Fourth Quarter 2019

photo of Adrian Hedwig

Adrian A. Hedwig

Financial Advisor, CUSO Financial Services, L.P.
Available at all Salal Credit Union branches
P: 206.607.3481
F. 206.298.3492
adrianh.cfsinvest@salalcu.org

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Vivid Autumn Leaves

Quarterly Market Review: July-September 2019

The third quarter was full of ups and downs for stocks, much like the second quarter. Stock values moved in response to the rhetoric from the participants in the trade war between the United States and China. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates two times during the quarter. More new jobs were added, but at a reduced rate, while wage growth continued. Manufacturing and industrial production remain muted, influenced, in part, by the waning global economy. Nevertheless, consumers were undaunted by economic developments, spending at a steady rate throughout the quarter.

July kicked off the third quarter in a somewhat lackluster manner, as the benchmark indexes listed here posted gains over June’s respective closing values. The Nasdaq gained over 2.0% for the month, followed by the S&P 500, which rose 1.31%. The Dow and Russell 2000 inched ahead by less than one percent, while the Global Dow dipped by almost half a percent. The Federal Open Market Committee reduced short-term interest rates 25 basis points, which sent stocks reeling. However, strong corporate earnings reports, low unemployment, and higher wages helped ease investors’ concerns by the end of the month.

August started with President Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports, which sent stocks plummeting. Throughout the month, each of the benchmark indexes listed here continued to lose value. Even a final-week push couldn’t save stocks from posting month-over-month losses. The small caps of the Russell 2000 were hit particularly hard, falling over 5.0% in August. The Global Dow lost almost 3.5%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped more than 2.5%. The large caps of the Dow and S&P 500 also fell close to 2.0%. Oil and gas prices at the pump fell in August, while long-term bond yields plunged as prices soared.

September saw each of the benchmark indexes listed here post solid gains, led by the Global Dow, which rode a solid close to the month on encouraging economic data from China. The Russell 2000 climbed almost 2.0% ahead of its August closing total, while both the Dow and S&P 500 exceeded their respective August closing marks by respectable amounts. The Nasdaq gained about half a percent on the month. The Federal Open Market Committee once again lowered interest rates 25 basis points in September following July’s 25-basis-point cut (the FOMC did not meet in August). By the close of trading on September 30, the price of crude oil (WTI) was $54.37 per barrel, down from the August 30 price of $55.16 per barrel. The national average retail regular gasoline price was $2.654 per gallon on September 23, up from the August 26 selling price of $2.574 but $0.190 lower than a year ago. The price of gold dropped by the end of September, falling to $1,479.30 by close of business on the 30th, off from $1,529.20 at the end of August.

For the third quarter, large caps performed better than small caps. The Dow and the S&P 500 each finished 1.19% above their respective second-quarter closing values. The tech stocks of the Nasdaq broke about even for the quarter, while the Russell 2000 and the Global Dow lost value. For the quarter, the price of crude oil (WTI) was $3.79 per barrel lower than its June 28 price. Gold closed the third quarter $66.00 higher than its second-quarter closing price. And the national average retail regular gasoline price, at $2.654 per gallon on September 23, did not change from its average price at the end of the second quarter.

Market/Index
2018 Close
As of September 30
Monthly Change
Quarterly Change
YTD Change
DJIA
23327.46
26916.83
1.95%
1.19%
15.39%
Nasdaq
6635.28
7999.34
0.46%
-0.09%
20.56%
S&P 500
2506.85
2976.74
1.72%
1.19%
18.74%
Russell 2000
1348.56
1523.37
1.91%
-2.76%
12.96%
Global Dow
2736.74
3021.34
2.31%
-1.73%
10.40%
Fed. Funds
2.25%-2.50%
1.75%-2.00%
-25 bps
-50 bps
-50 bps
10-year Treasuries
2.68%
1.67%
17 bps
-33 bps
-101 bps
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Latest Economic Reports

  • Employment: Total employment increased by 130,000 in August after adding 159,000 (revised) new jobs in July. The average monthly job gain so far in 2019 fell to 158,000 per month (223,000 in 2018). Notable employment increases for August occurred in professional and business services (37,000), health care (24,000), financial activities (15,000), and social assistance (13,000). The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in August. The number of unemployed persons fell slightly to 6.0 million (6.1 million in July). The labor participation rate edged up 0.2 percentage point to 63.2%, and the employment-population ratio was 60.9% (60.7% in July). The average workweek increased 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours for August. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.11 to $28.11. Over the last 12 months ended in August, average hourly earnings have risen 3.2%.
  • FOMC/interest rates: The Federal Open Market Committee followed July’s 25-basis-point cut by lowering interest rates another 25 basis points in September. The federal funds rate range has been decreased by 50 basis points so far this year. Interestingly, the Committee’s action was not unanimous. Of the 10 members voting, 1 voted for a 50-basis-point reduction, while 2 members opted for no rate reduction. Nevertheless, in support of its decision to reduce interest rates, the Committee noted that inflation continues to run below the Fed’s 2.0% target rate, business fixed investment and exports have weakened, and global economic developments are uncertain.
  • GDP/budget: Economic growth slowed in the second quarter but was still solid. According to the third and final estimate of the gross domestic product, the second quarter grew at an annualized rate of 2.0%. The first quarter saw an annualized growth of 3.1%. Consumer prices and spending increased in the second quarter, rising 2.4% and 4.6%, respectively. Pulling the GDP down in the second quarter were negative contributions from business fixed investment (equipment, software, structures, etc.) and exports. The federal budget deficit was $200 billion in August ($119.7 billion in July). Through the first 11 months of the fiscal year, the government deficit sits at $1,067 billion,18.8% more than the deficit over the same period last year.
  • Inflation/consumer spending: Inflationary pressures remain weak, as consumer prices showed no increase in August and are up 1.4% over the last 12 months. Consumer prices excluding food and energy inched up 0.1% in August (0.2% increase in July) and 1.8% since August 2018. In August, consumer spending rose 0.1% (0.5% in July). Personal income and disposable (after-tax) personal income climbed 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, in August.
  • The Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% in August following a 0.3% advance in July. Over the 12 months ended in August, the CPI rose 1.7%. Energy prices fell 1.9% on the month with gasoline down 3.5%. Prices less food and energy rose 0.3% in August — the same increase as in July. Since last August, core prices (less food and energy) are up 2.4%.

  • According to the Producer Price Index, the prices companies received for goods and services rose 0.1% in August after increasing 0.2% in July. The index increased 1.8% for the 12 months ended in August. Prices for goods fell 0.5% in August, pulled down by falling energy prices. Prices for services increased 0.3% last month. However, the price index less foods, energy, and trade services jumped 0.4% in August after dropping 0.1% the prior month. The price index less foods, energy, and trade services increased 1.9% over the last 12 months.

  • Housing: Activity in the housing market can be described as erratic at best. Existing home sales jumped 1.3% in August after climbing 2.5% in July. Year-over-year, existing home sales are up 2.6%. Existing home prices fell in August, as the median price for existing homes was $278,200, down from July’s median price of $280,800. Nevertheless, existing home prices were up 4.7% from August 2018. Total housing inventory for existing homes for sale in August decreased to 1.86 million (1.89 million in July), representing a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace. After falling close to 9.5% in July, sales of new single-family houses climbed 7.1% in August. New home sales are up 18.0% over their August 2018 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in August was $328,400 ($305,400 in July). The average sales price was $404,200 ($372,700 in July). Inventory at the end of August was at a supply of 5.5 months (5.9 months in July).
  • Manufacturing: According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production rose 0.6% in August after falling 0.1% July. Manufacturing output advanced 0.5% following a 0.4% drop in July. In August, mining output and utilities climbed 1.4% and 0.6%, respectively. Total industrial production was 0.4% higher in August than it was a year earlier. Orders for durable goods increased for the second month in a row in August, climbing 0.2% after increasing 2.0% in July. New orders for capital goods used by businesses to produce consumer goods fell 2.1% in August. New orders for capital goods excluding transportation increased 0.5% last month, while new orders for capital goods excluding defense fell 0.6%.
  • Imports and exports: Both import and export prices ebbed in August, falling 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. For the year, import prices are down 2.0%, while export prices are off 1.4%. In August, a drop in fuel prices was the main drag on import prices, while falling agricultural and nonagricultural prices pulled export prices lower. The latest information on international trade in goods and services, out September 4, is for July and shows that the goods and services deficit was $54.0 billion, down from the revised $55.5 billion deficit in June. July exports were $207.4 billion, $1.2 billion more than June exports. July imports were $261.4 billion, $0.4 billion less than June imports. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $28.2 billion, or 8.2%. Exports decreased $3.4 billion, or 0.2%. Imports increased $24.9 billion, or 1.4%. The advance report on international trade in goods (excluding services) revealed the trade deficit rose to $72.8 billion in August, up from $72.5 billion in July. Exports of goods in August were $137.8 billion, $0.2 billion more than July exports, while imports of goods were $210.6 billion, $0.5 billion more than July imports.
  • International markets: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson attempted to shut down Parliament for several weeks as part of his effort to shunt opponents to his plan to push through a “no-deal” Brexit by October 31. However, the UK Supreme Court ruled the move was unlawful. This decision will likely put pressure on Johnson to resign. How this affects Brexit moving forward remains unclear. Household spending helped push the eurozone gross domestic product ahead 0.2% in the second quarter. The eurozone economy has grown 1.2% year-over-year. In China, economic activity worsened in August as industrial production slowed to its weakest pace since 2012, most likely impacted by the trade war with the United States.
  • Consumer confidence: While consumer confidence has been relatively strong for much of the year, it did fall back in August. Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions decreased, as did consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions.

Eye on the Month Ahead

Economic growth has slowed so far this year, as lagging export orders have quelled manufacturing output. Wages continued to grow, while consumers ratcheted up their spending. The fourth quarter will likely ride the ebb and flow of economic and world events, not the least of which is the ongoing trade war between the world’s two economic giants: China and the United States.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to six foreign currencies. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Retired Couple Drinking Coffee & Looking at iPadFive Retirement Lessons from Today’s Retirees

Each year for its Retirement Confidence Survey, the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) surveys 1,000 workers and 1,000 retirees to assess how confident they are in their ability to afford a comfortable retirement. Once again, in 2019, retirees expressed stronger confidence than workers: 82% of retirees reported feeling “very” or “somewhat” confident, compared with 67% of workers. A closer look at some of the survey results reveals various lessons today’s workers can learn from current retirees.

Current sources of retiree income

Let’s start with a breakdown of the percentage of retirees who said the following resources provide at least a minor source of income:

  • Social Security: 88%
  • Personal savings and investments: 69%
  • Defined benefit/traditional pension plan: 64%
  • Individual retirement account: 61%
  • Workplace retirement savings plan: 54%
  • Product that guarantees monthly income: 33%
  • Work for pay: 25%

Lesson 1: Don’t count on work-related earnings

Perhaps the most striking percentage is the last one, given that 74% of today’s workers expect work-related earnings to be at least a minor source of income in retirement. Currently, just one in four retirees works for pay.

Lesson 2: Have realistic expectations for retirement age

Building upon Lesson 1, it may benefit workers to proceed with caution when estimating their retirement age, as the Retirement Confidence Survey consistently finds a big gap between workers’ expectations and retirees’ actual retirement age.

In 2019, the gap is three years: Workers said they expect to retire at the median age of 65, whereas retirees said they retired at a median age of 62. Three years can make a big difference when it comes to figuring out how much workers need to accumulate by their first year of retirement. Moreover, 34% of workers reported that they plan to retire at age 70 or older (or not at all), while just 6% of current retirees fell into this category. In fact, almost 40% of retirees said they retired before age 60. The reality is that more than four in 10 retirees retired earlier than planned, often due to a health issue or change in their organizations.

Estimating retirement age is one area where workers may want to hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Lesson 3: Income is largely a result of individual savings efforts

Even though 64% of current retirees have defined benefit or pension plans, an even larger percentage say they rely on current savings and investments, and more than half rely on income from IRAs and/or workplace plans. Current workers are much less likely to have defined benefit or pension plans, so it is even more important that they focus on their own savings efforts.

Fortunately, workers appear to be recognizing this fact, as 82% said they expect their workplace retirement savings plan to be a source of income in retirement, with more than half saying they expect employer plans to play a “major” role.

Lesson 4: Some expenses, particularly health care, may be higher than expected

While most retirees said their expenses were “about the same” or “lower than expected,” approximately a third said their overall expenses were higher than anticipated. Nearly four out of 10 said health care or dental expenses were higher.

Workers may want to take heed from this data and calculate a savings goal that accounts specifically for health-care expenses. They may also want to familiarize themselves with what Medicare does and does not cover (e.g., dental and vision costs are not covered) and think strategically about a health savings account if they have the opportunity to utilize one at work.

Lesson 5: Keep debt under control

Just 26% of retirees indicated that debt is a problem, while 60% of workers said this is the case for them. Unfortunately, debt can hinder retirement savings success: seven in 10 workers reported that their non-mortgage debt has affected their ability to save for retirement. Also consider that 32% of workers with a major debt problem were not at all confident about having enough money to live comfortably in retirement, compared with just 5% of workers who don’t have a debt problem.

As part of their overall financial strategy, workers may want to develop a plan to pay down as much debt as possible prior to retirement.


Woman Sitting on Couch, Working on Her ComputerDo Millennials Need Life Insurance?

The financial challenges millennials face can be overwhelming. Many young adults have to figure out how to pay off college loans, save to buy a home or start a family, and sock away money for retirement. Given these hurdles, it’s no wonder that life insurance as a financial asset gets little to no attention. But it should. There are many reasons to have life insurance at a relatively young age, but here are some common ones.

Leaving your debts for others to pay

As a young adult, you become more independent and self-sufficient. While you no longer depend on others for your financial well-being, your death might still create a financial hardship for those you leave behind.

You may have debts such as a mortgage or student loans that are jointly held with another person. Or you may be paying your parents for loans they took out (e.g., PLUS loans) to help pay for your education. Your untimely death would leave others responsible for some or all of these debts. You might consider purchasing enough life insurance to cover your financial obligations so others don’t have to.

Funeral expenses can also be a burden for those you leave behind. Life insurance could ease the financial burden of paying for your uninsured medical bills (if any) and for costs associated with your funeral and burial.

It’s less expensive

Premiums for life insurance are based on many factors, including age and health. Certainly, the younger and presumably healthier you are, the less your coverage will cost. This is especially true if you are at a high risk for developing a medical condition later in life.

Replacing lost income

Someone may be relying on your income for financial support. For instance, you may be providing for a family member such as a parent, grandparent, or sibling. In each of these instances, how would your income be replaced if you died? The death benefit from life insurance can help replace your income after you’re gone.

Providing for your family

As your family grows, so do your financial responsibilities. There is likely a hefty mortgage to pay. And there are costs associated with young children. If you died without life insurance, how would the mortgage get paid? Could your surviving spouse or partner cover the costs of day care and housekeeping?

And there are events you should plan for now that won’t happen until several years in the future. Maybe you’ll begin saving for your kids’ college education while trying to save as much as you can for your retirement. Over the next several decades, think about how much you could set aside for these expenses. If you are no longer around to make these contributions, life insurance can help fund these future accumulations.

Work coverage may not be enough

You may have a job with an employer that sponsors group life insurance. Hopefully, you take advantage of that program, but is it enough coverage to meet your needs now and in the future? Your insurance needs may change with time, although your employer’s coverage may not. Also, most employer-sponsored life insurance programs are effective only while you remain an employee. If you change jobs or are unable to work due to illness or disability, you may lose your employer’s coverage. That’s why it’s a good idea to consider buying your own life insurance.

The cost and availability of life insurance depend on factors such as age, health, and the type and amount of insurance purchased. As with most financial decisions, there are expenses associated with the purchase of life insurance. Policies commonly have mortality and expense charges. In addition, if a policy is surrendered prematurely, there may be surrender charges and income tax implications.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
*Non-deposit investment products and services are offered through CUSO Financial Services, L.P. (“CFS”), a registered broker-dealer (member FINRA / SIPC) and SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Products offered through CFS: are not NCUA/NCUSIF or otherwise federally insured, are not guarantees or obligations of the credit union, and may involve investment risk including possible loss of principal. Investment Representatives are registered through CFS. The credit union has contracted with CFS to make non-deposit investment products and services available to credit union members.
Prepared for Salal Investment Services by Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. Copyright 2019.
Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice. The information presented here is not specific to any individual’s personal circumstances.
To the extent that this material concerns tax matters, it is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by a taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed by law. Each taxpayer should seek independent advice from a tax professional based on his or her individual circumstances.
These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. The information in these materials may change at any time and without notice. This communication is strictly intended for individuals residing in the state(s) of WA, OR, OH, IA and CA. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident outside the specific states referenced.